14104 RUNNING DEER TRL TX 78734
| Owner | KAY PHILIP J & YASUKO N KAY |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0145550324 |
| Short ID | 146557 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 68,328 SF |
| Acres | 1.569 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 573 APACHE SHORES SEC 2 |
| Neighborhood | R4006 |
| Land | $897,620 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $897,620 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $897,620 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $897,620 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$717,620 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $180,000 |
| Taxable Value | $180,000 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +1532.0% from $55,000 (2021) to $897,620 (2025), a CAGR of 101.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +283.7%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $2,923. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 64.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($180,000) is $717,620 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($897,620 land vs $0 improvements), about $13/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $897,620, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $84,423 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $362,804, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +74.8% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $14,649,485 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $205,800. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $1,871.46 | $1,871.46 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $676.52 | $676.52 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $212.44 | $212.44 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $162.72 | $162.72 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.7993% | 1.7157% | 1.5625% | 1.6056% | 1.6240% | +0.0184% | $2,923.14 | $2,923.14 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.0397% | $1,871.46 | 64.0% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $676.52 | 23.1% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $212.44 | 7.3% |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.0904% | $162.72 | 5.6% |
| Total | 1.6240% | $2,923.14 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $897,620 | $897,620 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $216,000 | $180,000 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $897,620 | $897,620 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $216,000 | $180,000 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$681,620 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$3,508
Estimated
|
~$2,923
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $897,620 | $897,620 | — | −$681,620 | $216,000 | $216,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $897,620 | $897,620 | — | −$717,620 | $180,000 | $180,000 | ~$2,923 | Partial |
| 2024 | $315,000 | $315,000 | — | −$165,000 | $150,000 | $150,000 | $2,408 | Verified |
| 2023 | $200,000 | $200,000 | — | — | $200,000 | $200,000 | $1,953 | Verified |
| 2022 | $161,000 | $161,000 | — | — | $161,000 | $161,000 | $2,762 | Verified |
| 2021 | $55,000 | $55,000 | — | — | $55,000 | $55,000 | $990 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 24.1% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +185.0% ! | +20.0% | 20.0% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +57.5% | -25.0% | 47.6% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +24.2% | +24.2% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +192.7% ! | +192.7% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +1532.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +91.9% | +74.8% | +192.7% | 2022 | +0.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 24.1% | 65.3% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 20.1% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.3300% | 0.3300% | — | 0.3300% | 2025 | 0.3300% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$2,923 | $2,207 | ~$93,138 | $2,923 | 2025 | $990 | 2021 |
Market value changed by 193% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$1,569,056 | ~$1,569,056 | ~1.5801% | ~$24,793 | +74.8% |
| 2028 | ~$2,742,739 | ~$2,742,739 | ~1.5363% | ~$42,137 | +205.6% |
| 2029 | ~$4,794,358 | ~$4,794,358 | ~1.4925% | ~$71,555 | +434.1% |
| 2030 | ~$8,380,625 | ~$8,380,625 | ~1.4487% | ~$121,406 | +833.6% |
| 2031 | ~$14,649,485 | ~$14,649,485 | ~1.4048% | ~$205,800 | +1532.0% |
| 2027 | ~$1,551,104 | ~$1,551,104 | ~1.6240% | ~$25,189 | +72.8% |
| 2028 | ~$2,680,336 | ~$2,680,336 | ~1.6240% | ~$43,528 | +198.6% |
| 2029 | ~$4,631,669 | ~$4,631,669 | ~1.6240% | ~$75,217 | +416.0% |
| 2030 | ~$8,003,608 | ~$8,003,608 | ~1.6240% | ~$129,976 | +791.6% |
| 2031 | ~$13,830,382 | ~$13,830,382 | ~1.6240% | ~$224,601 | +1440.8% |
| 2027 | ~$1,587,009 | ~$1,587,009 | ~1.5582% | ~$24,729 | +76.8% |
| 2028 | ~$2,805,860 | ~$2,805,860 | ~1.4925% | ~$41,877 | +212.6% |
| 2029 | ~$4,960,812 | ~$4,960,812 | ~1.4267% | ~$70,778 | +452.7% |
| 2030 | ~$8,770,806 | ~$8,770,806 | ~1.3610% | ~$119,371 | +877.1% |
| 2031 | ~$15,506,945 | ~$15,506,945 | ~1.2953% | ~$200,855 | +1627.6% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $897,620 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 11× the county median of $84,423. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $897,620 | $24,862 | $84,423 | $362,804 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $315,000 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $328,966 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $200,000 | $24,692 | $71,500 | $270,000 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $161,000 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,000 | ↑ Above median | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $55,000 | $8,000 | $22,000 | $81,900 | ↑ Above median | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |