14949 ARROWHEAD DR TX 78641
| Owner | NEELLEY DOROTHY SELF TRUSTEE |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0166500810 |
| Short ID | 169122 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 22,876 SF |
| Acres | 0.525 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 10 BLK 1 ARROWHEAD POINT SUBD NO 1 |
| Neighborhood | T9010WF |
| Land | $560,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $560,000 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $560,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $560,000 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$41,600 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $518,400 |
| Taxable Value | $518,400 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +191.7% from $192,000 (2021) to $560,000 (2025), a CAGR of 30.7% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +283.7%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7842% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $9,249. Leander ISD is the largest single contributor, at 60.9% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($518,400) is $41,600 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($560,000 land vs $0 improvements), about $24/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $560,000, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $84,423 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $362,804, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +21.3% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $1,323,000 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $19,854. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILE Leander ISD | 1.3370% | 1.2746% | 1.1087% | 1.0869% | 1.0869% | +0.0000% | $5,634.49 | $5,634.49 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,948.38 | $1,948.38 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $611.83 | $611.83 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $536.03 | $536.03 | Paid |
| E14 Travis County ESD # 14 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $518.40 | $518.40 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.0110% | 1.8902% | 1.7126% | 1.7406% | 1.7842% | +0.0436% | $9,249.13 | $9,249.13 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILE Leander ISD | 1.0869% | $5,634.49 | 60.9% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $1,948.38 | 21.1% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $611.83 | 6.6% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $536.03 | 5.8% |
| E14 Travis County ESD # 14 | 0.1000% | $518.40 | 5.6% |
| Total | 1.7842% | $9,249.13 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $504,000 | $560,000 | -10.0% |
| Assessed Value | $504,000 | $518,400 | -2.8% |
| Land Value | $504,000 | $560,000 | -10.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $504,000 | $518,400 | -2.8% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$8,992
Estimated
|
~$9,249
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $504,000 | $504,000 | — | — | $504,000 | $504,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $560,000 | $560,000 | — | −$41,600 | $518,400 | $518,400 | ~$9,249 | Partial |
| 2024 | $800,000 | $800,000 | — | −$368,000 | $432,000 | $432,000 | $7,519 | Verified |
| 2023 | $360,000 | $400,000 | — | — | $360,000 | $360,000 | $6,166 | Verified |
| 2022 | $192,000 | $192,000 | — | — | $192,000 | $192,000 | $3,629 | Verified |
| 2021 | $192,000 | $192,000 | — | — | $192,000 | $192,000 | $3,861 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.0% | -2.8% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -30.0% | +20.0% | 92.6% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +122.2% ! | +20.0% | 54.0% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +87.5% ! | +87.5% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +191.7% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -10.0% | +33.9% | +21.3% | +122.2% | 2024 | -30.0% | 2025 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 91.1% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 54.0% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.6500% | 1.6500% | — | 1.6500% | 2025 | 1.6500% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$9,249 | $6,085 | ~$14,861 | $9,249 | 2025 | $3,629 | 2022 |
Market value changed by 88% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$611,303 | ~$611,303 | ~1.7275% | ~$10,560 | +21.3% |
| 2028 | ~$741,451 | ~$741,451 | ~1.6708% | ~$12,388 | +47.1% |
| 2029 | ~$899,307 | ~$899,307 | ~1.6141% | ~$14,515 | +78.4% |
| 2030 | ~$1,090,772 | ~$1,090,772 | ~1.5574% | ~$16,987 | +116.4% |
| 2031 | ~$1,323,000 | ~$1,323,000 | ~1.5007% | ~$19,854 | +162.5% |
| 2027 | ~$601,223 | ~$601,223 | ~1.7842% | ~$10,727 | +19.3% |
| 2028 | ~$717,200 | ~$717,200 | ~1.7842% | ~$12,796 | +42.3% |
| 2029 | ~$855,550 | ~$855,550 | ~1.7842% | ~$15,264 | +69.8% |
| 2030 | ~$1,020,587 | ~$1,020,587 | ~1.7842% | ~$18,209 | +102.5% |
| 2031 | ~$1,217,461 | ~$1,217,461 | ~1.7842% | ~$21,722 | +141.6% |
| 2027 | ~$621,383 | ~$621,383 | ~1.6991% | ~$10,558 | +23.3% |
| 2028 | ~$766,104 | ~$766,104 | ~1.6141% | ~$12,365 | +52.0% |
| 2029 | ~$944,532 | ~$944,532 | ~1.5290% | ~$14,442 | +87.4% |
| 2030 | ~$1,164,516 | ~$1,164,516 | ~1.4440% | ~$16,815 | +131.1% |
| 2031 | ~$1,435,734 | ~$1,435,734 | ~1.3589% | ~$19,510 | +184.9% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $560,000 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 7× the county median of $84,423. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $560,000 | $24,862 | $84,423 | $362,804 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $800,000 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $328,966 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $360,000 | $24,692 | $71,500 | $270,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $192,000 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $192,000 | $8,000 | $22,000 | $81,900 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |