16177 FLINT ROCK RD TX 78734
| Owner | ELLIS JORGE ROBERTO & |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0127780303 |
| Short ID | 521696 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | 11,726 SF |
| Land SF | 1,559,579 SF |
| Acres | 35.803 |
| Year Built | 1999 |
| Legal | ABS 821 SUR 78 WALDRON C W ACR 34.803 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | R3014 |
| Land | $1,946,728 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,946,728 |
| Improvement | $1,866,970 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $1,866,970 |
| Market | $3,813,698 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $3,813,698 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,698,223 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $2,115,475 |
| Taxable Value | $2,115,475 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +112.2% from $1,796,888 (2021) to $3,813,698 (2025), a CAGR of 20.7% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2022→2023), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +479.4%, so this parcel has lagged the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.6800% in 2025 (+0.0211% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $35,539. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 61.9% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($2,115,475) is $1,698,223 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 51% of market value ($1,946,728 land vs $1,866,970 improvements), about $1/SF of land. Land and improvements both carry meaningful weight; value is balanced between the structure and its site.
Submarket Position: At $3,813,698, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +29.4% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $13,824,965 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $49,736. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
15 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 11,726 SF | ✓ |
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 7,868 SF | ✗ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 5,007 SF | ✗ |
| 051 | CARPORT DET 1ST | 4,836 SF | ✗ |
| 298 | LIGHT UTILITY BLDG | 2,744 SF | ✓ |
| 061 | CARPORT ATT 1ST | 2,601 SF | ✗ |
| 612 | TERRACE UNCOVERD | 1,758 SF | ✗ |
| 031 | GARAGE DET 1ST F | 936 SF | ✓ |
| 581 | STORAGE ATT | 406 SF | ✓ |
| 571 | STORAGE DET | 240 SF | ✓ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 11 SF | ✓ |
| 411 | SOLAR DEVICES RESIDENTIAL | 9 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 3 SF | ✓ |
| 447 | SPA CONCRETE | 1 SF | ✗ |
| 604 | POOL RES CONC | 1 SF | ✗ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 521696 | ELLIS JORGE ROBERTO & | 16177 FLINT ROCK RD 78738 | $4,903,828 | $2,308,272 | $2,308,272 |
| 521697 | ELLIS JORGE ROBERTO & | 0.000 | — | — | — |
Market value changed by 128% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $21,994.59 | $21,994.59 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $7,950.91 | $7,950.91 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $2,496.75 | $2,496.75 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $1,912.36 | $1,912.36 | Paid |
| W17 WCID # 17 | 0.0568% | 0.0543% | 0.0533% | 0.0533% | 0.0560% | +0.0027% | $1,184.66 | $1,184.66 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.8561% | 1.7700% | 1.6158% | 1.6589% | 1.6800% | +0.0211% | $35,539.27 | $35,539.27 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $4,903,828 | $3,813,698 | +28.6% |
| Assessed Value | $2,308,272 | $2,115,475 | +9.1% |
| Land Value | $1,946,729 | $1,946,728 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | $2,957,099 | $1,866,970 | +58.4% |
| Taxable Value | $2,308,272 | $2,115,475 | +9.1% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$2,595,556 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$38,778
Estimated
|
~$35,539
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $4,903,828 | $4,903,828 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $2,308,272 | $2,308,272 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4,903,828 | $1,946,729 | $2,957,099 | −$2,595,556 | $2,308,272 | $2,308,272 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $3,813,698 | $1,946,728 | $1,866,970 | −$1,698,223 | $2,115,475 | $2,115,475 | ~$35,539 | Partial |
| 2024 | $3,749,314 | — | — | −$3,677,779 | $71,535 | $— | $60,422 | Verified |
| 2023 | $3,369,410 | — | — | −$3,322,278 | $47,132 | $— | $60,705 | Verified |
| 2022 | $1,760,985 | — | — | −$1,713,853 | $47,132 | $— | $60,134 | Verified |
| 2021 | $1,796,888 | — | — | −$1,749,617 | $47,271 | $— | $34,683 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | — | — | — | Not available | — |
| 2025 | -24.0% | +19.7% | 10.3% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +127.6% ! | +19.5% | 6.5% | 1.0100% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.2% | 12.4% | 1.2500% | Verified |
| 2022 | -37.9% | -92.3% | 12.4% | 1.3500% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 1.9300% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +7.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +28.6% | +26.2% | +23.6% | +91.3% | 2023 | -2.0% | 2022 |
| Assessment Ratio | 47.1% | 18.5% | — | 55.5% | 2025 | 1.4% | 2023 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.1700% | 0.1700% | — | 0.1700% | 2025 | 0.1700% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$35,539 | $50,297 | ~$43,743 | $60,705 | 2023 | $34,683 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$4,934,122 | ~$2,327,022 | ~1.6359% | ~$38,069 | +29.4% |
| 2027 | ~$6,383,714 | ~$2,559,725 | ~1.5919% | ~$40,749 | +67.4% |
| 2028 | ~$8,259,180 | ~$2,815,697 | ~1.5479% | ~$43,584 | +116.6% |
| 2029 | ~$10,685,639 | ~$3,097,267 | ~1.5039% | ~$46,578 | +180.2% |
| 2030 | ~$13,824,965 | ~$3,406,994 | ~1.4598% | ~$49,736 | +262.5% |
| 2026 | ~$4,857,848 | ~$2,327,022 | ~1.6800% | ~$39,093 | +27.4% |
| 2027 | ~$6,187,874 | ~$2,559,725 | ~1.6800% | ~$43,003 | +62.3% |
| 2028 | ~$7,882,048 | ~$2,815,697 | ~1.6800% | ~$47,303 | +106.7% |
| 2029 | ~$10,040,068 | ~$3,097,267 | ~1.6800% | ~$52,033 | +163.3% |
| 2030 | ~$12,788,931 | ~$3,406,994 | ~1.6800% | ~$57,236 | +235.3% |
| 2026 | ~$5,010,396 | ~$2,327,022 | ~1.6139% | ~$37,556 | +31.4% |
| 2027 | ~$6,582,604 | ~$2,559,725 | ~1.5479% | ~$39,622 | +72.6% |
| 2028 | ~$8,648,154 | ~$2,815,697 | ~1.4818% | ~$41,724 | +126.8% |
| 2029 | ~$11,361,853 | ~$3,097,267 | ~1.4158% | ~$43,851 | +197.9% |
| 2030 | ~$14,927,080 | ~$3,406,994 | ~1.3498% | ~$45,986 | +291.4% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $3,813,698 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 6× the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $3,813,698 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $3,749,314 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $3,369,410 | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $1,760,985 | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $1,796,888 | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.