106 COLD WATER LN TX 78734
| Owner | ROSE WILLIAM S & PAULA |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0137730603 |
| Short ID | 134940 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 29,673 SF |
| Acres | 0.681 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 2848 LAKEWAY SEC 22-C |
| Neighborhood | R2005 |
| Land | $317,321 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $317,321 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $317,321 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $317,321 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $317,321 |
| Taxable Value | $317,321 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +203.2% from $104,650 (2021) to $317,321 (2025), a CAGR of 32.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 1.8467% in 2025 (+0.0282% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $5,860. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 56.3% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($317,321 land vs $0 improvements), about $11/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $317,321, this parcel sits in the upper-middle (50th–75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +32.0% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $1,269,692 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $20,444. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 151% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $2,700.02 | $2,700.02 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $976.04 | $976.04 | Paid |
| CLW City of Lakeway | 0.1545% | 0.1290% | 0.1440% | 0.1598% | 0.1696% | +0.0098% | $440.54 | $440.54 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $306.50 | $306.50 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $234.76 | $234.76 | Paid |
| U26 Lakeway MUD | 0.0822% | 0.0631% | 0.0531% | 0.0531% | 0.0531% | +0.0000% | $137.90 | $137.90 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.0360% | 1.9078% | 1.7596% | 1.8185% | 1.8467% | +0.0282% | $4,795.76 | $4,795.76 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $259,692 | $317,321 | -18.2% |
| Assessed Value | $259,692 | $317,321 | -18.2% |
| Land Value | $317,321 | $317,321 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $259,692 | $317,321 | -18.2% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$4,796
Estimated
|
~$4,796
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $317,321 | $259,692 | -57,629 (-18.2%) |
| Taxable Value | $311,630 | $259,692 | -51,938 (-16.7%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $259,692 | $317,321 | — | — | $259,692 | $259,692 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $317,321 | $317,321 | — | — | $317,321 | $317,321 | ~$4,796 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $316,250 | $— | $4,888 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $431,250 | $— | $3,942 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $171,668 | $— | $3,275 | Verified |
| 2021 | $104,650 | — | — | −$10,650 | $94,000 | $— | $1,914 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | -1.8% | 98.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.3% | +18.1% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | -26.7% | -37.7% | 85.0% | 1.5500% | Verified |
| 2023 | +151.2% ! | +151.2% | ~100% | 0.9100% | Verified |
| 2022 | +64.0% | +64.0% | ~100% | 1.9100% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 1.8300% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +203.2% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -18.2% | +92.5% | +37.8% | +203.2% | 2025 | -18.2% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 96.6% | — | 100.0% | 2025 | 89.8% | 2021 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.5100% | 1.5100% | — | 1.5100% | 2025 | 1.5100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$4,796 | $3,355 | ~$13,208 | $4,796 | 2025 | $1,914 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$418,734 | ~$418,734 | ~1.7994% | ~$7,535 | +32.0% |
| 2027 | ~$552,559 | ~$552,559 | ~1.7521% | ~$9,681 | +74.1% |
| 2028 | ~$729,153 | ~$729,153 | ~1.7048% | ~$12,430 | +129.8% |
| 2029 | ~$962,185 | ~$962,185 | ~1.6574% | ~$15,948 | +203.2% |
| 2030 | ~$1,269,692 | ~$1,269,692 | ~1.6101% | ~$20,444 | +300.1% |
| 2026 | ~$412,388 | ~$412,388 | ~1.8467% | ~$7,616 | +30.0% |
| 2027 | ~$535,936 | ~$535,936 | ~1.8467% | ~$9,897 | +68.9% |
| 2028 | ~$696,499 | ~$696,499 | ~1.8467% | ~$12,862 | +119.5% |
| 2029 | ~$905,165 | ~$905,165 | ~1.8467% | ~$16,716 | +185.3% |
| 2030 | ~$1,176,346 | ~$1,176,346 | ~1.8467% | ~$21,724 | +270.7% |
| 2026 | ~$425,081 | ~$425,081 | ~1.7757% | ~$7,548 | +34.0% |
| 2027 | ~$569,435 | ~$569,435 | ~1.7048% | ~$9,707 | +79.5% |
| 2028 | ~$762,811 | ~$762,811 | ~1.6338% | ~$12,463 | +140.4% |
| 2029 | ~$1,021,856 | ~$1,021,856 | ~1.5628% | ~$15,970 | +222.0% |
| 2030 | ~$1,368,871 | ~$1,368,871 | ~1.4918% | ~$20,421 | +331.4% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $317,321 places it in the 50th–75th percentile for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 4× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $317,321 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Above median | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $104,650 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.