2915 GERONIMO TRL TX 78734
| Owner | ROSS CHIP S |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0147580408 |
| Short ID | 149841 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 8,343 SF |
| Acres | 0.192 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 457 APACHE SHORES FIRST INSTALLMENT |
| Neighborhood | R4006 |
| Land | $480,687 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $480,687 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $480,687 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $480,687 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$286,287 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $194,400 |
| Taxable Value | $194,400 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +540.9% from $75,000 (2021) to $480,687 (2025), a CAGR of 59.1% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $3,157. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 64.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($194,400) is $286,287 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($480,687 land vs $0 improvements), about $58/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $480,687, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +59.1% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $4,901,892 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $68,863. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 250% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $2,021.18 | $2,021.18 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $730.64 | $730.64 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $229.44 | $229.44 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $175.74 | $175.74 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.7993% | 1.7157% | 1.5625% | 1.6056% | 1.6240% | +0.0184% | $3,157.00 | $3,157.00 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $228,898 | $480,687 | -52.4% |
| Assessed Value | $228,898 | $194,400 | +17.7% |
| Land Value | $228,898 | $480,687 | -52.4% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $228,898 | $194,400 | +17.7% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$3,717
Estimated
|
~$3,157
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $228,898 | $228,898 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $228,898 | $228,898 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $228,898 | $228,898 | — | — | $228,898 | $228,898 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $480,687 | $480,687 | — | −$286,287 | $194,400 | $194,400 | ~$3,157 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $472,500 | $— | $2,601 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $135,000 | $— | $2,109 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $151,200 | $— | $2,594 | Verified |
| 2021 | $75,000 | — | — | — | $125,000 ! | $— | $2,249 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -52.4% | +17.7% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +1.7% | +20.0% | 40.4% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +250.0% ! | +20.0% | 34.3% | 0.5500% | Verified |
| 2023 | -10.7% | -10.7% | ~100% | 1.5600% | Verified |
| 2022 | +21.0% | +21.0% | ~100% | 1.7200% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 3.0000% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +284.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -52.4% | +244.2% | +94.1% | +540.9% | 2025 | -52.4% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 102.4% | — | 166.7% | 2021 | 40.4% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.6600% | 0.6600% | — | 0.6600% | 2025 | 0.6600% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$3,157 | $2,703 | ~$34,634 | $3,157 | 2025 | $2,249 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$764,826 | ~$764,826 | ~1.5801% | ~$12,085 | +59.1% |
| 2027 | ~$1,216,923 | ~$1,216,923 | ~1.5363% | ~$18,696 | +153.2% |
| 2028 | ~$1,936,258 | ~$1,936,258 | ~1.4925% | ~$28,898 | +302.8% |
| 2029 | ~$3,080,800 | ~$3,080,800 | ~1.4487% | ~$44,630 | +540.9% |
| 2030 | ~$4,901,892 | ~$4,901,892 | ~1.4048% | ~$68,863 | +919.8% |
| 2026 | ~$755,212 | ~$755,212 | ~1.6240% | ~$12,264 | +57.1% |
| 2027 | ~$1,186,522 | ~$1,186,522 | ~1.6240% | ~$19,269 | +146.8% |
| 2028 | ~$1,864,157 | ~$1,864,157 | ~1.6240% | ~$30,273 | +287.8% |
| 2029 | ~$2,928,795 | ~$2,928,795 | ~1.6240% | ~$47,563 | +509.3% |
| 2030 | ~$4,601,461 | ~$4,601,461 | ~1.6240% | ~$74,726 | +857.3% |
| 2026 | ~$774,440 | ~$774,440 | ~1.5582% | ~$12,068 | +61.1% |
| 2027 | ~$1,247,708 | ~$1,247,708 | ~1.4925% | ~$18,622 | +159.6% |
| 2028 | ~$2,010,195 | ~$2,010,195 | ~1.4267% | ~$28,680 | +318.2% |
| 2029 | ~$3,238,646 | ~$3,238,646 | ~1.3610% | ~$44,078 | +573.8% |
| 2030 | ~$5,217,815 | ~$5,217,815 | ~1.2953% | ~$67,584 | +985.5% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $480,687 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 6× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $480,687 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $75,000 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Above median | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.