1303 ROBIN TRL TX 78645
| Owner | WALSH JESSICA |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0160900611 |
| Short ID | 159847 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 16,069 SF |
| Acres | 0.369 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 27 BLK C EMERALD BEND SEC 1 |
| Neighborhood | S04WF |
| Land | $323,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $323,000 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $323,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $323,000 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$147,800 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $175,200 |
| Taxable Value | $175,200 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +742.8% from $38,325 (2021) to $323,000 (2025), a CAGR of 70.4% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 2.1307% in 2025 (+0.0473% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $3,733. Lago Vista ISD is the largest single contributor, at 47.7% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($175,200) is $147,800 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($323,000 land vs $0 improvements), about $20/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $323,000, this parcel sits in the upper-middle (50th–75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +70.4% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $4,638,237 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $78,684. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 281% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILV Lago Vista ISD | 1.2020% | 1.1846% | 1.0192% | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0.0000% | $1,781.61 | $1,781.61 | Paid |
| CLV City of Lago Vista | 0.6070% | 0.4283% | 0.4139% | 0.4231% | 0.4200% | -0.0031% | $735.84 | $735.84 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $658.48 | $658.48 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $206.78 | $206.78 | Paid |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $175.20 | $175.20 | Paid |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $175.14 | $175.14 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.4782% | 2.2082% | 2.0226% | 2.0834% | 2.1307% | +0.0473% | $3,733.05 | $3,733.05 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $136,000 | $323,000 | -57.9% |
| Assessed Value | $136,000 | $175,200 | -22.4% |
| Land Value | $136,000 | $323,000 | -57.9% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $136,000 | $175,200 | -22.4% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$2,898
Estimated
|
~$3,733
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $136,000 | $136,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $136,000 | $136,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $136,000 | $136,000 | — | — | $136,000 | $136,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $323,000 | $323,000 | — | −$147,800 | $175,200 | $175,200 | ~$3,733 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $323,000 | $— | $3,042 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $146,000 | $— | $2,953 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $146,000 | $— | $3,224 | Verified |
| 2021 | $38,325 | — | — | — | $38,325 | $— | $950 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -57.9% | -22.4% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 54.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +121.2% ! | +20.0% | 54.2% | 0.9400% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 2.0200% | Verified |
| 2022 | +281.0% ! | +281.0% | ~100% | 2.2100% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.4800% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +742.8% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -57.9% | +342.4% | +117.2% | +742.8% | 2025 | -57.9% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 84.7% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 54.2% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.1600% | 1.1600% | — | 1.1600% | 2025 | 1.1600% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$3,733 | $2,341 | ~$37,341 | $3,733 | 2025 | $950 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$550,342 | ~$550,342 | ~2.0439% | ~$11,248 | +70.4% |
| 2027 | ~$937,697 | ~$937,697 | ~1.9570% | ~$18,351 | +190.3% |
| 2028 | ~$1,597,691 | ~$1,597,691 | ~1.8702% | ~$29,879 | +394.6% |
| 2029 | ~$2,722,218 | ~$2,722,218 | ~1.7833% | ~$48,545 | +742.8% |
| 2030 | ~$4,638,237 | ~$4,638,237 | ~1.6964% | ~$78,684 | +1336.0% |
| 2026 | ~$543,882 | ~$543,882 | ~2.1307% | ~$11,589 | +68.4% |
| 2027 | ~$915,813 | ~$915,813 | ~2.1307% | ~$19,514 | +183.5% |
| 2028 | ~$1,542,087 | ~$1,542,087 | ~2.1307% | ~$32,858 | +377.4% |
| 2029 | ~$2,596,636 | ~$2,596,636 | ~2.1307% | ~$55,327 | +703.9% |
| 2030 | ~$4,372,332 | ~$4,372,332 | ~2.1307% | ~$93,163 | +1253.7% |
| 2026 | ~$556,802 | ~$556,802 | ~2.0004% | ~$11,139 | +72.4% |
| 2027 | ~$959,840 | ~$959,840 | ~1.8702% | ~$17,950 | +197.2% |
| 2028 | ~$1,654,616 | ~$1,654,616 | ~1.7399% | ~$28,788 | +412.3% |
| 2029 | ~$2,852,301 | ~$2,852,301 | ~1.6096% | ~$45,910 | +783.1% |
| 2030 | ~$4,916,925 | ~$4,916,925 | ~1.4793% | ~$72,735 | +1422.3% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $323,000 places it in the 50th–75th percentile for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 4× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $323,000 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Above median | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $38,325 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Above median | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.