21405 CARDINAL AVE TX 78645
| Owner | WOOD LARRY JAMES |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0160900627 |
| Short ID | 159863 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 38,111 SF |
| Acres | 0.875 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 12 BLK C EMERALD BEND SEC 1 |
| Neighborhood | S04WF |
| Land | $452,200 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $452,200 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $452,200 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $452,200 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$109,480 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $342,720 |
| Taxable Value | $342,720 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +406.7% from $89,250 (2021) to $452,200 (2025), a CAGR of 50.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 2.1307% in 2025 (+0.0473% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $7,302. Lago Vista ISD is the largest single contributor, at 47.7% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($342,720) is $109,480 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($452,200 land vs $0 improvements), about $12/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $452,200, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +50.0% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $3,437,427 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $58,314. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 167% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILV Lago Vista ISD | 1.2020% | 1.1846% | 1.0192% | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0.0000% | $3,485.12 | $3,485.12 | Paid |
| CLV City of Lago Vista | 0.6070% | 0.4283% | 0.4139% | 0.4231% | 0.4200% | -0.0031% | $1,439.42 | $1,439.42 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,288.10 | $1,288.10 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $404.49 | $404.49 | Paid |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $342.72 | $342.72 | Paid |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $342.61 | $342.61 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.4782% | 2.2082% | 2.0226% | 2.0834% | 2.1307% | +0.0473% | $7,302.46 | $7,302.46 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $190,400 | $452,200 | -57.9% |
| Assessed Value | $190,400 | $342,720 | -44.4% |
| Land Value | $190,400 | $452,200 | -57.9% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $190,400 | $342,720 | -44.4% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$4,057
Estimated
|
~$7,302
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $190,400 | $190,400 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $190,400 | $190,400 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $190,400 | $190,400 | — | — | $190,400 | $190,400 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $452,200 | $452,200 | — | −$109,480 | $342,720 | $342,720 | ~$7,302 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $452,200 | $— | $5,950 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $238,000 | $— | $4,814 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $238,000 | $— | $5,256 | Verified |
| 2021 | $89,250 | — | — | — | $89,250 | $— | $2,212 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -57.9% | -44.4% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 75.8% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +90.0% ! | +20.0% | 63.2% | 1.3200% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 2.0200% | Verified |
| 2022 | +166.7% ! | +166.7% | ~100% | 2.2100% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.4800% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +406.7% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -57.9% | +174.4% | +91.3% | +406.7% | 2025 | -57.9% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 91.9% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 75.8% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.6100% | 1.6100% | — | 1.6100% | 2025 | 1.6100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$7,302 | $4,757 | ~$32,303 | $7,302 | 2025 | $2,212 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$678,440 | ~$678,440 | ~2.0439% | ~$13,866 | +50.0% |
| 2027 | ~$1,017,869 | ~$1,017,869 | ~1.9570% | ~$19,920 | +125.1% |
| 2028 | ~$1,527,117 | ~$1,527,117 | ~1.8702% | ~$28,559 | +237.7% |
| 2029 | ~$2,291,147 | ~$2,291,147 | ~1.7833% | ~$40,858 | +406.7% |
| 2030 | ~$3,437,427 | ~$3,437,427 | ~1.6964% | ~$58,314 | +660.2% |
| 2026 | ~$669,396 | ~$669,396 | ~2.1307% | ~$14,263 | +48.0% |
| 2027 | ~$990,912 | ~$990,912 | ~2.1307% | ~$21,114 | +119.1% |
| 2028 | ~$1,466,855 | ~$1,466,855 | ~2.1307% | ~$31,255 | +224.4% |
| 2029 | ~$2,171,399 | ~$2,171,399 | ~2.1307% | ~$46,267 | +380.2% |
| 2030 | ~$3,214,340 | ~$3,214,340 | ~2.1307% | ~$68,489 | +610.8% |
| 2026 | ~$687,484 | ~$687,484 | ~2.0004% | ~$13,753 | +52.0% |
| 2027 | ~$1,045,187 | ~$1,045,187 | ~1.8702% | ~$19,547 | +131.1% |
| 2028 | ~$1,589,007 | ~$1,589,007 | ~1.7399% | ~$27,647 | +251.4% |
| 2029 | ~$2,415,781 | ~$2,415,781 | ~1.6096% | ~$38,884 | +434.2% |
| 2030 | ~$3,672,732 | ~$3,672,732 | ~1.4793% | ~$54,330 | +712.2% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $452,200 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 5× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $452,200 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $89,250 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.