BOGGY FORD RD TX 78645
| Owner | MILLER STANLEY D & SANDRA L |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0167770114 |
| Short ID | 440073 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 236,052 SF |
| Acres | 5.419 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 189 SUR 98 CAMPBELL M F ACR 5.419 (AKA LOT 31 RANCHO CIELO) |
| Neighborhood | S0006 |
| Land | $939,091 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $939,091 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $939,091 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $939,091 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$301,817 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $637,274 |
| Exemptions (−) (DV) | −$5,000 |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $632,274 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +687.7% from $119,218 (2021) to $939,091 (2025), a CAGR of 67.5% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7107% in 2025 (+0.0504% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $10,817. Lago Vista ISD is the largest single contributor, at 59.4% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($637,274) is $301,817 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($939,091 land vs $0 improvements), about $4/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $939,091, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +67.5% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $12,392,673 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $187,152. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 345% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILV Lago Vista ISD | 1.2020% | 1.1846% | 1.0192% | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0.0000% | $6,429.59 | $6,429.59 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $2,376.37 | $2,376.37 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $746.23 | $746.23 | Paid |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $632.27 | $632.27 | Paid |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $632.07 | $632.07 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.8712% | 1.7799% | 1.6087% | 1.6603% | 1.7107% | +0.0504% | $10,816.53 | $10,816.53 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $509,091 | $939,091 | -45.8% |
| Assessed Value | $509,091 | $637,274 | -20.1% |
| Land Value | $509,091 | $939,091 | -45.8% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $504,091 | $632,274 | -20.3% |
| Exemptions | DV | DV | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$8,624
Estimated
|
~$10,817
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $509,091 | $509,091 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $504,091 | $504,091 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $509,091 | $509,091 | — | — | $509,091 | $504,091 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $939,091 | $939,091 | — | −$301,817 | $637,274 | $632,274 | ~$10,817 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $531,062 | $— | $8,734 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $531,062 | $— | $8,463 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $531,062 | $— | $9,452 | Verified |
| 2021 | $119,218 | — | — | — | $119,218 | $— | $2,231 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -45.8% | -20.1% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +76.8% ! | +20.0% | 67.9% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.6400% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.5900% | Verified |
| 2022 | +345.5% ! | +345.5% | ~100% | 1.7800% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 1.8700% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +687.7% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -45.8% | +321.0% | +95.8% | +687.7% | 2025 | -45.8% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 89.3% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 67.9% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.1500% | 1.1500% | — | 1.1500% | 2025 | 1.1500% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$10,817 | $6,524 | ~$88,263 | $10,817 | 2025 | $2,231 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$1,573,255 | ~$1,573,255 | ~1.6706% | ~$26,283 | +67.5% |
| 2027 | ~$2,635,667 | ~$2,635,667 | ~1.6305% | ~$42,975 | +180.7% |
| 2028 | ~$4,415,522 | ~$4,415,522 | ~1.5904% | ~$70,225 | +370.2% |
| 2029 | ~$7,397,305 | ~$7,397,305 | ~1.5503% | ~$114,680 | +687.7% |
| 2030 | ~$12,392,673 | ~$12,392,673 | ~1.5102% | ~$187,152 | +1219.6% |
| 2026 | ~$1,554,473 | ~$1,554,473 | ~1.7107% | ~$26,593 | +65.5% |
| 2027 | ~$2,573,113 | ~$2,573,113 | ~1.7107% | ~$44,019 | +174.0% |
| 2028 | ~$4,259,262 | ~$4,259,262 | ~1.7107% | ~$72,865 | +353.6% |
| 2029 | ~$7,050,339 | ~$7,050,339 | ~1.7107% | ~$120,613 | +650.8% |
| 2030 | ~$11,670,395 | ~$11,670,395 | ~1.7107% | ~$199,650 | +1142.7% |
| 2026 | ~$1,592,037 | ~$1,592,037 | ~1.6506% | ~$26,278 | +69.5% |
| 2027 | ~$2,698,973 | ~$2,698,973 | ~1.5904% | ~$42,925 | +187.4% |
| 2028 | ~$4,575,558 | ~$4,575,558 | ~1.5302% | ~$70,017 | +387.2% |
| 2029 | ~$7,756,923 | ~$7,756,923 | ~1.4701% | ~$114,032 | +726.0% |
| 2030 | ~$13,150,278 | ~$13,150,278 | ~1.4099% | ~$185,406 | +1300.3% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $939,091 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 11× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $939,091 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $119,218 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.