LOHMANS FORD RD TX 78645
| Owner | OTWELL JAMES |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0167770120 |
| Short ID | 458252 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 220,414 SF |
| Acres | 5.060 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 189 SUR 98 CAMPBELL M F ACR 5.060 (AKA LOT 29 RANCHO CIELO) |
| Neighborhood | S0006 |
| Land | $905,942 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $905,942 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $905,942 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $905,942 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$397,552 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $508,390 |
| Taxable Value | $508,390 |
|---|
| Total Due | $10,001.78 |
|---|---|
| First Delinquent | — |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +713.8% from $111,320 (2021) to $905,942 (2025), a CAGR of 68.9% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7107% in 2025 (+0.0504% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $8,697. Lago Vista ISD is the largest single contributor, at 59.4% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($508,390) is $397,552 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($905,942 land vs $0 improvements), about $4/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $905,942, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +68.9% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $12,452,581 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $188,056. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
Delinquent Taxes: $10,001.78 in unpaid taxes . These become a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
| Entity | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | Rate Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis County | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +160 |
| Travis Central Health | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +51 |
| Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +46 |
| Lago Vista ISD | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0 |
| Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0 |
Market value changed by 281% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
This parcel has unpaid taxes on record. Delinquent taxes are a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILV Lago Vista ISD | 1.2020% | 1.1846% | 1.0192% | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0.0000% | $5,169.82 | $— | $5,169.82 |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,910.76 | $— | $1,910.76 |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $600.02 | $— | $600.02 |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $508.39 | $— | $508.39 |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $508.22 | $— | $508.22 |
| Combined Rate | 1.8712% | 1.7799% | 1.6087% | 1.6603% | 1.7107% | +0.0504% | $8,697.21 | $0.00 | $8,697.21 |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $485,355 | $905,942 | -46.4% |
| Assessed Value | $485,355 | $508,390 | -4.5% |
| Land Value | $485,355 | $905,942 | -46.4% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $485,355 | $508,390 | -4.5% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$8,303
Estimated
|
$8,697 | ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $485,355 | $485,355 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $485,355 | $485,355 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $485,355 | $485,355 | — | — | $485,355 | $485,355 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $905,942 | $905,942 | — | −$397,552 | $508,390 | $508,390 | $8,697 | Verified |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $423,658 | $— | $7,034 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $423,658 | $— | $6,816 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $423,658 | $— | $7,541 | Verified |
| 2021 | $111,320 | — | — | — | $111,320 | $— | $2,083 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -46.4% | -4.5% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +113.8% ! | +20.0% | 56.1% | 0.9600% | Verified |
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.6600% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.6100% | Verified |
| 2022 | +280.6% ! | +280.6% | ~100% | 1.7800% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 1.8700% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +713.8% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -46.4% | +333.7% | +98.2% | +713.8% | 2025 | -46.4% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 85.4% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 56.1% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.9600% | 0.9600% | — | 0.9600% | 2025 | 0.9600% | 2025 |
| Tax Amount | $8,697 | $5,390 | ~$87,896 | $8,697 | 2025 | $2,083 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$1,530,144 | ~$1,530,144 | ~1.6706% | ~$25,563 | +68.9% |
| 2027 | ~$2,584,425 | ~$2,584,425 | ~1.6305% | ~$42,139 | +185.3% |
| 2028 | ~$4,365,116 | ~$4,365,116 | ~1.5904% | ~$69,423 | +381.8% |
| 2029 | ~$7,372,717 | ~$7,372,717 | ~1.5503% | ~$114,299 | +713.8% |
| 2030 | ~$12,452,581 | ~$12,452,581 | ~1.5102% | ~$188,056 | +1274.5% |
| 2026 | ~$1,512,025 | ~$1,512,025 | ~1.7107% | ~$25,867 | +66.9% |
| 2027 | ~$2,523,582 | ~$2,523,582 | ~1.7107% | ~$43,172 | +178.6% |
| 2028 | ~$4,211,879 | ~$4,211,879 | ~1.7107% | ~$72,054 | +364.9% |
| 2029 | ~$7,029,662 | ~$7,029,662 | ~1.7107% | ~$120,259 | +676.0% |
| 2030 | ~$11,732,565 | ~$11,732,565 | ~1.7107% | ~$200,713 | +1195.1% |
| 2026 | ~$1,548,262 | ~$1,548,262 | ~1.6506% | ~$25,555 | +70.9% |
| 2027 | ~$2,645,993 | ~$2,645,993 | ~1.5904% | ~$42,082 | +192.1% |
| 2028 | ~$4,522,025 | ~$4,522,025 | ~1.5302% | ~$69,198 | +399.2% |
| 2029 | ~$7,728,178 | ~$7,728,178 | ~1.4701% | ~$113,610 | +753.1% |
| 2030 | ~$13,207,522 | ~$13,207,522 | ~1.4099% | ~$186,213 | +1357.9% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $905,942 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 11× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $905,942 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $111,320 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.