2807 FERGUSON LN TX 78754
| Owner | 2807 FERGUSON LP |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0233280214 |
| Short ID | 460003 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 61 Warehouse (<20,000 SF) |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 17,000 SF |
| Land SF | 207,040 SF |
| Acres | 4.753 |
| Year Built | 2023 |
| Legal | LOT 14 BLK E WALNUT CREEK BUSINESS PARK PHS C5 |
| Neighborhood | 1NE1 |
| Land | $703,936 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $703,936 |
| Improvement | $1,570,358 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $1,570,358 |
| Market | $2,274,294 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $2,274,294 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$308,808 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $1,965,486 |
| Taxable Value | $1,965,486 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +330.8% from $527,952 (2021) to $2,274,294 (2025), a CAGR of 44.1% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2025→2026), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 2.2027% in 2025 (+0.0900% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $43,293. Manor ISD is the largest single contributor, at 49.1% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($1,965,486) is $308,808 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 31% of market value ($703,936 land vs $1,570,358 improvements), about $3/SF of land. Most value sits in the improvements, so building condition, age (~3 yrs), and rent roll drive the underwriting.
Submarket Position: At $2,274,294, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +44.1% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $14,114,380 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $59,267. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
2 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 551 | PAVED AREA | 32,000 SF | ✗ |
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 17,000 SF | ✓ |
Market value changed by 141% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMA Manor ISD | 1.3520% | 1.3520% | 1.0861% | 1.0814% | 1.0814% | +0.0000% | $21,254.77 | $21,254.77 | Paid |
| CAT City of Austin | 0.5410% | 0.4627% | 0.4458% | 0.4776% | 0.5240% | +0.0464% | $10,299.48 | $10,299.48 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $7,387.18 | $7,387.18 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $2,319.73 | $2,319.73 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $2,032.31 | $2,032.31 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.4670% | 2.3303% | 2.0358% | 2.1127% | 2.2027% | +0.0900% | $43,293.47 | $43,293.47 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $4,016,449 | $2,274,294 | +76.6% |
| Assessed Value | $2,358,583 | $1,965,486 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $703,936 | $703,936 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | $3,312,513 | $1,570,358 | +110.9% |
| Taxable Value | $2,358,583 | $1,965,486 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$1,657,866 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$51,952
Estimated
|
~$43,293
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $4,413,680 | $4,016,449 | -397,231 (-9.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $2,358,583 | $2,358,583 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4,016,449 | $703,936 | $3,312,513 | −$1,657,866 | $2,358,583 | $2,358,583 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $2,274,294 | $703,936 | $1,570,358 | −$308,808 | $1,965,486 | $1,965,486 | ~$43,293 | Partial |
| 2024 | $679,298 | — | — | — | $703,936 ! | $— | $34,604 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $679,298 | $— | $13,829 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $527,952 | $— | $12,303 | Verified |
| 2021 | $527,952 | — | — | — | $527,952 | $— | $13,024 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +94.1% ! | +20.0% | 53.4% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +38.9% | +20.0% | 86.4% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +141.1% ! | +141.1% | ~100% | 2.1100% | Verified |
| 2023 | +28.7% | +28.7% | ~100% | 2.0400% | Verified |
| 2022 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 2.3300% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.4700% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +330.8% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +76.6% | +113.4% | +31.6% | +234.8% | 2025 | +28.7% | 2024 |
| Assessment Ratio | 58.7% | 87.2% | — | 103.6% | 2024 | 58.7% | 2026 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.9000% | 1.9000% | — | 1.9000% | 2025 | 1.9000% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$43,293 | $30,307 | ~$52,584 | $43,293 | 2025 | $13,024 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$3,276,496 | ~$2,162,035 | ~2.1366% | ~$46,194 | +44.1% |
| 2027 | ~$4,720,334 | ~$2,378,238 | ~2.0705% | ~$49,242 | +107.6% |
| 2028 | ~$6,800,420 | ~$2,616,062 | ~2.0045% | ~$52,438 | +199.0% |
| 2029 | ~$9,797,128 | ~$2,877,668 | ~1.9384% | ~$55,780 | +330.8% |
| 2030 | ~$14,114,380 | ~$3,165,435 | ~1.8723% | ~$59,267 | +520.6% |
| 2026 | ~$3,231,010 | ~$2,162,035 | ~2.2027% | ~$47,623 | +42.1% |
| 2027 | ~$4,590,183 | ~$2,378,238 | ~2.2027% | ~$52,385 | +101.8% |
| 2028 | ~$6,521,113 | ~$2,616,062 | ~2.2027% | ~$57,624 | +186.7% |
| 2029 | ~$9,264,318 | ~$2,877,668 | ~2.2027% | ~$63,386 | +307.3% |
| 2030 | ~$13,161,494 | ~$3,165,435 | ~2.2027% | ~$69,725 | +478.7% |
| 2026 | ~$3,321,982 | ~$2,162,035 | ~2.1036% | ~$45,480 | +46.1% |
| 2027 | ~$4,852,303 | ~$2,378,238 | ~2.0045% | ~$47,671 | +113.4% |
| 2028 | ~$7,087,590 | ~$2,616,062 | ~1.9054% | ~$49,845 | +211.6% |
| 2029 | ~$10,352,595 | ~$2,877,668 | ~1.8062% | ~$51,978 | +355.2% |
| 2030 | ~$15,121,675 | ~$3,165,435 | ~1.7071% | ~$54,038 | +564.9% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $2,274,294 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 27× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2,274,294 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $679,298 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $527,952 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.